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Darren Krett

Tuesday, 6 June 2023

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END OF DAY REPORT JUNE 6th

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HIGHLIGHTS- EQUITIES, FUTURES & OPTIONS

Former Fed Vice Chair Clarida, on BBG TV, says Fed will likely raise rates again in this cycle and is unlikely to start cutting rates until 2024 

The hawkishness from the ex-official adds to the bullish economy theme Tuesday driven by World Bank and Goldman Sach's Hatzius ramping their growth forecasts for the year.

World Bank raises 2023 global GDP forecast to 2.1% (vs 1.7% in Jan) "on greater-than-expected resilience in major economies", cuts 2024 to 2.4% (2.7%) amid drag from tighter monetary policy, sees 2025 at 3.0%
Hapag Lloyd (HLAG GY) CEO says global port congestion situation has eased, pretty much back to normal; freight rates are at unsustainable levels significantly below cost and expect them to rebound

US SEC sues Coinbase (COIN) in NY federal court and claims the co. is acting as an unregistered broker

US SEC Chair Gensler says the Binance case has parallels with FTX case; says investment advisors must be careful on crypto

Goldman Sachs cuts probability of US recession in the next 12 months back to 25% from 35%; Fed most likely to add a 25bps rate hike in July to take terminal forecast to 5.25-5.5%; 2023 GDP seen at 1.8% "well above" both private-sector and Fed's view Main reasons for its growth forecast upgrade: Tail risk of disruptive debt ceiling impasse passing with only small spending cuts. More importantly, confident in its baseline forecast that the banking stress will subtract only a modest 0.4pp from real GDP growth this year, as regional bank stock prices have stabilized, deposit outflows have slowed, lending volumes have held up, and lending surveys point to only limited tightening ahead. Boost from the recovery in real disposable income and the stabilisation in the housing market.

US intelligence points to Russia being behind the Ukraine dam attack, according to NBC News

SUMMARY

So maybe we wont have a recession after all....Goldmans put out a piece today stating that the chance of one has reduced from 35% to 25% given that with various headwinds, the economy still isnt in one. Other forecasters have pushed the possible starting date for a downturn further out, toward the end of the year. And some even think the U.S. is likely to avoid a recession altogether. IF the slower growth keeps pottering along in the face of higher rates then maybe the Fed has managed to thread the eye of the needle after all. Americans themselves don’t seem quite as worried, either. The number of searches for the word “recession” on Google has fallen close to a one-year low after spiking last summer.

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