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BlogsEnd Of Day Report March 2nd

US Secretary of State Blinken says he told Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov that the US will always be ready to engage on strategic arms controlMORNING REPORT

Darren Krett

Thursday, 2 March 2023

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End Of Day Report March 2nd

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closing report

HIGHLIGHTS

-	Credit Suisse& Barclays  raises ECB terminal rate forecast to 4.0% (prev. 3.5%); sees 50bps hikes in March and May, followed by 25bps hikes in June and July

-	Fed's Bostic (non-voter) says Fed may have to do more given high inflation and strong jobs market, won't decide until meeting on proper policy path; have seen "some attenuation" of inflation

-	Have seen "some attenuation" of inflation Policy should begin to "bite" through the spring. 

-	Debate is underway about how much influence monetary policy is having in the current economy. 

-	Considers risks now roughly balanced. Business executives say demand is strong and concerns are more macro-related than specific to their firms. 

-	Appropriate to be cautious so Fed does enough to control inflation but does not "do more than we need to". 

-	Businesses say they are expecting to ratchet down the pace of wage increases, but still plan to add workers. 

-	"Slow and steady" changes in policy should reduce the risk of a hard outcome. Will need to have "some kind" of slowdown in the labour market, but not a "catastrophic" fall.

-       US State Department says not expecting any more formal senior dialogue with Russia in the short term

economic update

Once again, rates are higher....we are going to be publishing an article tomorrow about exactly that and the repercussions to the equity markets, so watch out for that 

Market Snapshot

ProductFutureUnderlyingChangeOptionVolatilityChange
S&PESH233976.5

20

ESH2318.29

3.46

EURUSDEUM310655.5

-69

EUJ37.9

-0.28

Treasury-10YRZNM3101'155

-0'165

ZNJ38.28

-0.14

SOFR MonthlySFRH239499

0

SFRH2342.04

4.38

SOFR MidCurveSFRH249496.5

0

0QH23174.92

-1.98

CORNC_K3633'4

-2'2

C_J316.94

-0.78

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