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Testing testUS Core CPI MM, SA* (Mar) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)

Darren Krett

Tuesday 9 April 2024

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Option plays for Blackrock (BLK) earnings and beyond

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Blackrock…with quite a lot of analysts still considering this stock a buy, we should be able to look at 2 scenarios for this given the chart is looking a bit tired

But lets start off with the downside

I like the put fly that comes in at the top of the vanilla list

In at $2.25 and out at $7.70..now with this fly I may have to wait a bit to see some real returns on this, but having said that a move down straight after the earnings release then it will still monetize pretty well

For the upside, I am going to go with Goldman's target price of $913, given that’s kind of in the middle of most on the list while at the same time giving myself plenty of wiggle room given that its an end of year target. Well…I seem spoilt for choice on this scenario

Now although the return on the top pick is enormous, it does also come with a little risk

It will do very well if we go there quickly , but hold it too long and as you can see here, the top right of this heatmap would be painful…but as always, we are reminded that we are NOT looking to run this to expiration anyway. For those a little more risk adverse , then look at this one on the vanilla list And this one, although not showing as large a return, is still very good and with less potential downside

So we are expecting a $20 range for the earnings compared to $13 normally. So just a 2.5% move expected for the upcoming earnings So there you have it

A July expiration downside trade and an end-of-year upside trade.

Good luck everyone and remember it is always better to be lucky than good!

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Testing testUS Core CPI MM, SA* (Mar) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)

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